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Iran's 'destroyed' military; ICE sicced on Marines; two days; and a big budget ask
While I aim to provide in-depth analyses on the war with Iran (and other matters), sometimes it is useful—necessary, even—to catch you up on news you might have missed. This is one of those instances. I plan to insert these news updates once or more per week (depending on my time and ability to collect the data and write them) between the weekend analyses pieces.
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How we all feel about this war. Yes, I took this photo and survived.
More American assets destroyed
On Friday, April 3, two more US aircraft were confirmed lost in the war with Iran—an F-15E Strike Eagle and an A-10 Warthog—and at least one helicopter took ground fire that injured some of its occupants as they tried to rescue the downed pilots. An F-35 was also reportedly shot down, though this has not been confirmed. Previously, three other F-15s were lost (supposedly to friendly fire), a KC-135 Stratotanker crashed (supposedly after crashing into another plane), and an E-3 AWACS was destroyed by a missile or drone strike while on the ground at Prince Sultan Air base in Saudi Arabia.
News broke that one of the pilots of the downed F-15 was lost for a while somewhere in Iran. Then Trump announced “we got him” via a “daring” rescue operation on his social media. I hope this is true, but there is evidence suggesting the rescue did not go as intended or that the op was not a ‘rescue’ at all. For example, it has been confirmed that at least two C-130s and an UH-60 Black Hawk were destroyed, though by whom remains in question.
If more data points become available, I will comment on this further in another piece. There are also some reports that a Blackhawk helicopter was downed (on April 4), perhaps as part of that rescue mission or perhaps a separate incident. Reporting leads toward the former, but nothing is certain.
Wreckage at the ‘rescue’ site of American aircrafts. Source: Telegram
Additionally, Iranian missiles or drones struck a facility belonging to Oracle, a company that has already laid off tens of thousands of employees for unstated reasons. They also damaged an “Israeli-linked” vessel on the Strait of Hormuz, further proving they effectively control the waterway. They also destroyed the AN/FPS-132 long-range 3D early warning radar at Jabal al-Dukhan in Bahrain. This American equipment costs around $1 billion and is yet another on the list of that type destroyed in the Middle East.
In a prime time address on April 1, President Trump stated:
They have no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated. We are unstoppable as a military force.
This does not sound particularly accurate.
ICE planned to target families of US Marine graduates
Whoa, pump the brakes. This cannot possibly be true, can it? You tell me.
This is what is posted on the Marine Corps Parris Island website right now (as of this writing, Apr. 6):
Due to increased force protection measures [for the upcoming boot camp graduation ceremony], federal law enforcement personnel will be present at installation access points during Recruit Family and Graduation Days.
But, this is what the same website said a week before:
…federal law enforcement personnel will be present at installation access points to conduct enhanced screening and lawful immigration status inquiries during recruit family and graduation days.
Notice the difference?
When media contacted Parris Island directly to inquire, the spokesperson confirmed the original message and said:
While the Marine Corps routinely coordinates with federal partners on security matters, this is the first time in recent memory that federal law enforcement agencies have supported base access operations at Parris Island in this capacity.
Three days later, that spokesperson’s message changed to: ICE agents will be there, yes, but only to “expedite enhanced base access procedures.” On the same day as the new message came out, Lindsay Williams, an ICE spokesman, said, “None of us will be there. I don’t know who else will be there or what they’ll be doing, but we won’t be there.”
Hmm… someone is not being particularly accurate.
I will unveil a big plan in two days
In June 2025, Sinead Butler explored US President Donald Trump’s obsession with ‘two weeks.’ She wrote:
“Two week taco” has also been a catchphrase making the rounds, in reference to the unfavourable nickname “TACO” previously given to Trump, meaning “Trump Always Chickens Out” for flip-flopping on his controversial tariff plans.
Well, with Iran, now it apparently is “two days.” Yes I know, Trump actually wrote 48 hours, but maybe he read Butler’s article recently, and worked from her conclusion:
Perhaps, Trump will change things up and say “fortnight” in future?
In any event, cheekiness aside, Trump is clearly pissed that he can do nothing about Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. He posted this on Saturday:
Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them.
The next morning, on Easter Sunday, he posted about the strait again:
Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.
The NY Post noted Trump has extended these kinds of deadlines repeatedly before. Indeed, his Sunday post is now giving Iran until Tuesday instead of Monday. So, whether he follows through with whatever alleged plan is in place on that day remains to be seen. (The ultimatum is purportedly scheduled for 8pm EST tonight).
It seems probable the president is angry that his demands are routinely ignored by Iran and is simply lashing out on his social media app. Perhaps his ire was exacerbated by his humiliation concerning a recent story he told in a Cabinet meeting at the end of March. Specifically, Trump claimed Iran let ten ships pass through the Strait as a ‘present’ to the US:
They said, ‘To show you the fact that we’re real and solid and we’re there, we’re going to let you have eight boats of oil ... and they’ll sail up tomorrow.’ They then apologized for something they said, and they said, ‘We’re going to send two more boats.’ And [it] ended up being 10 boats.
But as routinely happens, the ‘gift’ narrative quickly fell apart. Lloyd's List Intelligence determined, as reported by CBS News on April 1:
Since March 1, a day after the U.S. and Israel launched their joint attacks on Iran, 71% of all ships that have managed to transit the strait are either owned by Iran, coming or going from Iranian ports, or part of the so-called shadow fleet linked to Iranian oil shipments…
Even among ships that are compliant with sanctions, such as Greek bulk carrier cargo ships that have transited the strait, most have some ties to Iran.
Shadow fleet vessels have accounted for 88% of all transits over the last week, an increase from 83% the week before.
Hmm… neither Trump’s ‘gift’ story nor his ultimatum(s) sound particularly accurate.
The White House budget request is in, and it’s a doozy
Branko Marcetic at Jacobin opened his April 4 article with this statement:
Trump is peering over the edge of an electoral cliff come November, with the likely possibility that he drags the country and world into a completely avoidable and self-made economic crisis before then, all as the public seethes over his neglect of their core concern of affordability. It’s hard to see how the president could make this any worse for himself — but his crack team has found a way to pull it off.
Marcetic was referring to Trump’s request for a 44% increase in military spending, which would put its annual budget at “a hard-to-believe $1.5 trillion.” To accommodate such extraordinary spending, the proposed budget also calls for:
ending a $4 billion program that helps low-income people afford their energy bills;
cutting tens of millions of dollars worth of renewable energy programs;
eliminating nearly $400 million for homeless assistance;
cutting $4.2 billion of funding for electric vehicle chargers;
eliminating a $659 million Department of Agriculture program that funds local projects in poor rural areas;
cutting $386 million of funding for cleaning up ongoing contamination from the US military weapons program, and much more.
Furthermore, the administration is trying to convince Congress to approve $350 billion in additional war funds “through the party-line budget reconciliation process as an end-run on the Senate filibuster.” The Iran War Cost Ticker has current spending at over $43 billion as of April 7.
Around April 3, Trump said this in a video that was later deleted from the White House’s website:
The United States can’t take care of daycare. That has to be up to a state. We can’t take care of daycare. We’re a big country. We have 50 states. We have all these other people. We’re fighting wars. We can’t take care of daycare. You got to let a state take care of daycare. And they should pay for it, too. They should pay. They have to raise their taxes, but they should pay for it. And we could lower our taxes a little bit to them to make up. But we… it’s not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things. They can do it on a state basis. You can’t do it on a federal. We have to take care of one thing. Military protection.
We can’t take care of daycare. It’s not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things. We’re fighting wars.
Now THAT sounds particularly accurate.
Breaking News: I caught wind of this story just this morning.
Yesterday, a massive explosion ripped through the Balboa oil tank facility on the Panama Canal. A massive ball of flame briefly engulfed the Bridge of the Americas, which spans the canal just before it opens into the Gulf of Panama (on the Pacific side).
CCTV footage of the initial explosion.
While the canal remains open to ship traffic, the bridge has been temporarily closed while investigators and engineers inspect it. The cause of the explosion is unknown as of this writing.
I am not speculating as to the cause. It could be a simple accident or a purposeful act. But, this story is important because with two of the world’s most critical waterways—the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea—facing disruptions or the potential for disruptions, upheaval in another would be catastrophic. About 6% of all global trade passes through the Panama Canal.
This is an illustration of what can happen when you start a war without a proper risk calculus or contingency plans. Subsequent bad luck (or an unexpected attack outside the theater) can snowball into utter catastrophe. If the incident in Panama ends up being worse than it looks, and results in the stoppage of shipping traffic, the global economy could go up in smoke just like the Balboa oil tank facility did.